Identifying, exploring, and interpreting time series shapes in multivariate time intervals

We introduce a concept of episode referring to a time interval in the development of a dynamic phenomenon that is characterized by multiple time-variant attributes. A data structure representing a single episode is a multivariate time series. To analyse collections of episodes, we propose an approach that is based on recognition of particular patterns in the temporal variation of the variables within episodes. Each episode is thus represented by a combination of patterns. Using this representation, we apply visual analytics techniques to fulfil a set of analysis tasks, such as investigation of the temporal distribution of the patterns, frequencies of transitions between the patterns in episode sequences, and co-occurrences of patterns of different variables within same episodes. We demonstrate our approach on two examples using real-world data, namely, dynamics of human mobility indicators during the COVID-19 pandemic and characteristics of football team movements during episodes of ball turnover. © 2023 The Author(s)

Anaphylactic reactions after COVID-19 vaccination in Germany.

. For the COVID-19 vaccines used in Germany, severe allergic (anaphylactic) reactions after vaccination have been reported in very rare cases. While Comirnaty and Spikevax are mRNA vaccines, Vaxzevria and Jcovden comprise vector vaccines, and Nuvaxovid a recombinant spike protein vaccine. The reporting rate of anaphylaxis after mRNA vaccination was higher in females receiving their first vaccination dose, with 0.97 and 1.12 reports per 100,000 vaccinations for Comirnaty and Spikevax, respectively, compared with vaccinated males and subsequent vaccinations. The Paul-Ehrlich-Institut (PEI) investigated 106 responses of 321 cases of confirmed anaphylactic reactions concerning subsequent allergy testing and revaccination with a COVID-19 vaccine. The collected data indicate that only a small proportion of cases (22%) were IgE-mediated reactions. A large proportion (73%) of patients could be revaccinated under precautionary measures without recurrence of anaphylaxis. The pathomechanism of the majority of anaphylactic reactions remains unclear and should be investigated in further studies.

The Impact of a Delay on the Evolution of Epidemics

: Based on a discrete model of the spread of infection in a closed population, the corresponding form of differential equations with delay is found. It is shown that the development of the epidemic is determined by four key parameters: the number of infectious persons, the average number of dangerous contacts of one infectious person per day, the probability of infection as a result of such contact, and the average time interval during which the sick person is able to infect others. The decision also depends on the size of the population and on the initial number of infected persons. The four named parameters have a clear meaning and are related to the well-known concept of reproductive number in the continuous Susceptible–Infectious–Recovered (SIR) and Susceptible–Infected–Infectious–Recovered (SEIR) models. The epidemic saturation conditions are established by solving the obtained differential equations. It is shown that, due to the long virus carrying characteristic of COVID-19, the solutions proposed here differ significantly from the SIR model. © 2022, Pleiades Publishing, Ltd.

Brownian Motion Fractal Nature Frontiers Within the Matter

One of the main motivations for our research was to find a connection between the Brownian motion of microorganisms within fractal nature, with the idea of developing an appropriate procedure and method to control the microorganism's motion direction and predict the position of the microorganism in time. In this paper, we have followed the results of the very rear microorganism's motion sub-microstructures in the experimental microstructure analysisFractals already observed and published. All of these data have been good basis to describe the motion trajectory by time interval method and fractals. We successfully defined the diagrams in two and three-dimensions and we were able to establish the control of Brownian chaotic motion as a bridge between chaotic disorders to control disorder. This significant study opens a new possibility for future investigation and the new potential of total control of the microorganism motion. These perspectives and findings provide significant data for getting more information from these bio systems. They can also be applied, based on self-similarities and biomimetics, to particle physical systemMatterFractalss and matter, generally. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

Evaluating the spread of Omicron COVID-19 variant in Spain

This work analyzes the propagation of Omicron, a high transmissible COVID-19 variant, across Spain by means of EpiGraph. EpiGraph is an agent-based parallel simulator that reproduces the COVID-19 propagation over wide areas. In this work we consider a population of 19,574,086 individuals related to the 63 most populated cities of Spain for the time interval comprised between May 15th of 2021 and March 6th of 2022. The main variants existing at the start of the simulation were the Alpha and Delta, with a a 4% and 96% prevalence of the existing infections, respectively. Then, during the second mid of November of 2021 the Delta variant appears in Spain. Given to the higher transmission of this new variant-about 2 times larger than Delta-, it quickly spreads through all the cities and becomes the dominant strain of the country. In this work we analyze the propagation of this variant under multiple conditions. First, we define a baseline scenario, that reproduces the existing conditions of the COVID-19 propagation in Spain for this period. Then, we consider alternative scenarios, in which different locations of the initial spread of Omicron variant are considered. Finally, for each one of these scenarios, we evaluate different transportation intensities-i.e. movement of individuals between the cities-. The main conclusion of this work is that, independently of the initial location of the Omicron variant, and the existing transportation conditions, the Omicron variant spreads though all the country in a short time interval. © 2022 IEEE.

A Dynamic Indicator to Model Students' Digital Behavior

During the first French Covid19 lockdown, students had to switch to a fully online learning mode. Therefore, understanding students' digital behavior becomes crucial for analysts serving public institution policy. In particular, they want to determine and interpret the evolution of students' digital behavior. This paper aims to offer them indicators. We propose to study generic student logs corresponding to standard digital workspace services. Therefore, this paper contributes to the scientific question: Can we give an easy-to-interpret and visual indicator to model students' behavior changes from poor and generic data? We first verify that we can extract epidemic-specific temporal patterns on these logs using Contrast Mining. These patterns represent students' behaviors and pace. Then, we propose a new method called Temporal Pattern Histories (TPH), representing the evolution of the temporal patterns' over time. It is a dynamic representation of students' digital behavior. Using this method, we present graphically abrupt changes during the Cov19 lockdown, and we give some hypotheses about these results. This case study proves the relevance of TPH to detect and analyze students' behavioral changes in an interpretive way. This approach has the advantage of representing the global evolution of students' behavior without giving students specific information.

Comparison of Chest CT and RT-PCR Assay for Indication of Disease Course of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 patients' courses vary in length, indicating a variable prognosis. The disease duration revealed by different examination methods may differ. OBJECTIVE: The study aims to compare the differences in the disease course of patients with COVID-19 by chest computed tomography (CT) and reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay and explore the factors that affect the course of the illness. METHODS: 106 patients confirmed with COVID-19 were enrolled and divided into two groups (age <60 years and age ≥60 years). The clinical characteristics of the two groups were analyzed. The intervals from symptoms onset to initial positive time point (ISIP), symptoms onset to the initial negative time point (ISIN), and initial positive to initial negative time point (IIPN) indicated by chest CT and RTPCR assay were analyzed. Multiple regression analysis was performed to assess the correlations between independent factors and the intervals. RESULTS: Chest CT showed an earlier positive time point, a later negative time point, and a longer disease duration than the RT-PCR assay (P<.001, respectively). Older patients over 60 years old showed a later negative time point and a longer disease duration by chest CT than younger patients (P<.01 vs. P<.05, respectively). The CT score and clinical grades of older patients were greater than those of younger patients (P<.001, respectively). Age and clinical grades were significantly correlated with the disease course shown by chest CT (P<.05, respectively), and CT score was positively correlated with the illness course shown by chest CT and RT-PCR assay (P<.01, respectively). CONCLUSION: The disease course revealed by chest CT and RT-PCR assay was asynchronous. Chest CT showed a 17-day longer period compared to the RT-PCR assay. Older patients had a longer duration than younger ones. A prolonged course is predicted by increasing age, CT score, and clinical grades.

Rapid testing: Analysis of gnss rapid static observations suitability for engineering surveys in urban environments in the time of covid-19

This study aims to determine which rapid static observation durations would have acceptable accuracy for engineering surveys in urban environments (i.e. Metro Manila) in the time of COVID-19. Due to health concerns caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, Metro Manila has experienced various restrictions in mobility and time spent in public spaces in recent months. This has affected not only the lives and ways of work of the so-called front liners like nurses, doctors, and primary health care workers, but also the public at large which includes Land Surveyors. It is for this reason that this study was conducted, since a balance must be struck between the aim to get accurate engineering survey results and the health and safety of those who are conducting the measurements. Hence, the shortest possible time to conduct rapid static GNSS observation durations with acceptable results must be determined while ensuring that the conduct of the field survey would still be in compliance to the minimum health protocols (i.e. no mass gathering, maintenance of physical distancing, short time of interaction, etc.) set by the national government.For this study, rapid static observations were made at varying time intervals (i.e. 2 minutes, 5 minutes, 10 minutes, 15 minutes, 30 minuntes, 1 hour, and 2 hours) at locations (i.e. open, with minimal obstructions, with significant obstructions) that would simulate archetypal situations when conducting engineering surveys in urban environments. Results were computed using fully constrained least square adjustment and results show that if all GNSS satellites are used in the computations, all time intervals would yield acceptable RMSE values, both for the horizontal (5 mm to 2 cm) and vertical (1 cm to 4 cm), for engineering surveys. However, if not all GNSS signals are available, it is best to use at least two GNSS satellite constellations (i.e. GPS-BeiDou, GPS-Glonass, Glonass-BeiDou) so that rapid static observations with acceptable accuracy can be made for as short as 5 minutes. For the "classical"accuracy standards, all rapid static observation durations yielded Order B relative precisions for the horizontal while most, except for the 30-minute duration, which yielded Third Order level results for the vertical. © International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences - ISPRS Archives

Seeing the unseen–the iceberg phenomenon in the first months of the COVID19 pandemic

We analyze the evolution of the COVID19 infections in the first months of the pandemics and show that the basic compartmental SIR model cannot explain the data, some characteristic time series being by more than an order of magnitude different from the fit function over significant parts of the documented time interval. To correct this large discrepancy, we amend the SIR model by assuming that there is a relatively large population that is infected but was not tested and confirmed. This assumption qualitatively changes the fitting possibilities of the model and, despite its simplicity, in most cases the time series can be well reproduced. The observed dynamic is only due to the transitions between two infected compartments, which are the unconfirmed infected and the confirmed infected, and the rate of closing the cases (by recovery or death) in the confirmed infected compartment. We also discuss some relevant extensions of this model, to improve the interpretation and the fitting of the data. These findings qualitatively and quantitatively evidences the “iceberg phenomenon” in epistemology. © 2021 Institute of Physics Publishing. All rights reserved.

An Order-Up-to Inventory Model with Sustainability Consideration

Along with growing interest in environmental concerns these days, significant academic efforts have been exerted to incorporate sustainability issues into the existing inventory models except for fixed-review interval (i.e., order-up-to models). In this study, we develop an order-up-to model considering environment-related costs and investigate the value of this new policy over the naïve one. Results of an extensive simulation study reveal that sustainability consideration reduces the total costs and that its value is higher when the mean demand is higher, when demand is more variable, when the costs of transshipment or inventory holding are lower, or when an ordering setup cost or an additional indirect cost of having inventory are higher. These findings fill the research gap in existing literature and contribute to managerial implications for periodic inventory control in practice.

The issue of decisiveness in the COVID-19 outbreak in Korea.

Based on five stakeholders (the central government, local governments, hospitals, businesses and local communities), the Republic of Korea must shift from its current indecisive approach to a decisive approach to the COVID-19 outbreak. Other nations should also consider the issue of decisiveness before it is too late.

Did patients with COVID-19 receive timely treatment in the early epidemic?-a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) showed a significant difference in case fatality rate between different regions at the early stage of the epidemic. In addition to the well-known factors such as age structure, detection efficiency, and race, there was also a possibility that medical resource shortage caused the increase of the case fatality rate in some regions. METHODS: Medline, Cochrane Library, Embase, Web of Science, CBM, CNKI, and Wanfang of identified articles were searched through 29 June 2020. Cohort studies and case series with duration information on COVID-19 patients were included. Two independent reviewers extracted the data using a standardized data collection form and assessed the risk of bias. Data were synthesized through description and analysis methods including a meta-analysis. RESULTS: A total of 109 articles were retrieved. The time interval from onset to the first medical visit of COVID-19 patients in China was 3.38±1.55 days (corresponding intervals in Hubei province, non-Hubei provinces, Wuhan, Hubei provinces without Wuhan were 4.22±1.13, 3.10±1.57, 4.20±0.97, and 4.34±1.72 days, respectively). The time interval from onset to the hospitalization of COVID-19 patients in China was 8.35±6.83 days (same corresponding intervals were 12.94±7.43, 4.17±1.45, 14.86±7.12, and 5.36±1.19 days, respectively), and when it was outside China, this interval was 5.27±1.19 days. DISCUSSION: In the early stage of the COVID-19 epidemic, patients with COVID-19 did not receive timely treatment, resulting in a higher case fatality rate in Hubei province, partly due to the relatively insufficient and unequal medical resources. This research suggested that additional deaths caused by the out-of-control epidemic can be avoided if prevention and control work is carried out at the early stage of the epidemic. TRIAL REGISTRATION: CRD42020195606.

Early Changes in Patient Access Interval during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Background: COVID-19 was first reported in the United States in January 2020. Its spread throughout the country required EMS systems to rapidly adapt to patient needs while protecting EMS personnel. EMS agencies developed protocols requiring personnel to don enhanced personal protective equipment prior to patient contact. We hypothesized that the Patient Access Interval (PAI), defined as the time from wheels stopped on scene to initial patient contact, had increased during the COVID pandemic. This had the potential to affect patient outcomes, particularly in time-sensitive emergencies such as cardiac arrest or respiratory distress. Methods: This retrospective cohort study used commercial ambulance data from the four largest cities in Connecticut at two different time points: (Pre-COVID) March-May 2019, and (COVID) March-May 2020. PAI was calculated from contemporaneously reported scene times. Total cases were analyzed, and sub-analyses performed for calls located at extended care facilities (ECFs), for all emergent (Echo/Delta) calls, and for medical cardiac arrest calls. Results: 92,846 total cases were evaluated: 50,083 from 2019, and 42,763 from 2020. Cases that did not include necessary time data for PAI were removed, yielding 75,796 total cases (41,852 from 2019, 33,944 from 2020). The average PAI increased from 1 minute 55 seconds (1 m:55s) Pre-COVID to 2 m:18s COVID. ECF PAI increased from 2 m:39s to 3 m:42s. Echo/Delta PAI increased from 1 m:42s to 2 m:07s. Medical cardiac arrest PAI increased from 1 m:27s to 2 m:04s, and ECF cardiac arrest PAI increased from 2 m:18s to 4 m:35s (all comparisons p < 0.01). Conclusions: There were statistically significant increases in all studied PAIs during COVID. The 23 second increase in PAI for all calls may not have been clinically significant in most cases; however, for life-threatening patient presentations, the increase may have been particularly relevant. The increased PAI was compounded in the ECF environment, possibly due to state-mandated screening and temperature checks of EMS personnel before entering facilities. This was highlighted in the ECF cardiac arrest data, which demonstrated a clinically significant increase in PAI of 2m:17s. While this study was limited by the accuracy of contemporaneous time reports by EMS, the results support our hypothesis that PAI had increased during the COVID pandemic.

Epidemiological Characteristics and Factors Associated with Critical Time Intervals of COVID-19 in Eighteen Provinces, China: A Retrospective Study.

BACKGROUND: As COVID-19 ravages continuously around the world, more information on the epidemiological characteristics and factors associated with time interval between critical events is needed to contain the pandemic and to assess the effectiveness of interventions. METHODS: Individual information on confirmed cases from January 21 to March 2 was collected from provincial or municipal health commissions. We identified the difference between imported and local cases in the epidemiological characteristics. Two models were established to estimate the factors associated with time interval from symptom onset to hospitalization (TOH) and length of hospital stay (LOS) respectively. RESULTS: Among 7,042 cases, 3392 (48.17%) were local cases and 3304 (46.92%) were imported cases. Since the first intervention was adopted in Hubei on January 23, the daily reported imported cases reached a peak on January 28 and gradually decreased since then. Imported cases were on average younger (41 vs. 48), and had more male (58.66% vs. 47.53%) compared to local cases. Furthermore, imported cases had more contacts with other confirmed cases (2.80 ± 2.33 vs. 2.17 ± 2.10), which were mainly within family members (2.26 ± 2.18 vs. 1.57 ± 2.06). The TOH and LOS were 2.67 ± 3.69 and 18.96 ± 7.63 days respectively, and a longer TOH was observed in elderly living in the provincial capital cities that were higher migration intensity with Hubei. CONCLUSIONS: Measures to restrict traffic can effectively reduce imported spread. However, household transmission is still not controlled, particularly for the infection of imported cases to elderly women. It is still essential to surveil and educate patients about the early admission or isolation.

Who is dying from COVID-19 and when? An Analysis of fatalities in Tamil Nadu, India.

BACKGROUND: As the number of COVID-19 cases continues to rise, public health efforts must focus on preventing avoidable fatalities. Understanding the demographic and clinical characteristics of deceased COVID-19 patients; and estimation of time-interval between symptom onset, hospital admission and death could inform public health interventions focusing on preventing mortality due to COVID-19. METHODS: We obtained COVID-19 death summaries from the official dashboard of the Government of Tamil Nadu, between 10th May and July 10, 2020. Of the 1783 deaths, we included 1761 cases for analysis. RESULTS: The mean age of the deceased was 62.5 years (SD: 13.7). The crude death rate was 2.44 per 100,000 population; the age-specific death rate was 22.72 among above 75 years and 0.02 among less than 14 years, and it was higher among men (3.5 vs 1.4 per 100,000 population). Around 85% reported having any one or more comorbidities; Diabetes (62%), hypertension (49.2%) and CAD (17.5%) were the commonly reported comorbidities. The median time interval between symptom onset and hospital admission was 4 days (IQR: 2, 7); admission and death was 4 days (IQR: 2, 7) with a significant difference between the type of admitting hospital. One-fourth of (24.2%) deaths occurred within a day of hospital admission. CONCLUSION: Elderly, male, people living in densely populated areas and people with underlying comorbidities die disproportionately due to COVID-19. While shorter time-interval between symptom onset and admission is essential, the relatively short time interval between admission and death is a concern and the possible reasons must be evaluated and addressed to reduce avoidable mortality.

[Interval between entry of mainland China and diagnosis in imported COVID-19 cases and factors contributing to delayed diagnosis in Guangdong Province].

OBJECTIVE: To understand the distribution patterns and the factors influencing the interval between entry of mainland China and diagnosis in imported COVID-19 cases in Guangdong Province to provide evidence for formulating and implementing effective control measures. METHODS: We collected the data of imported COVID-19 cases from March 1st to April 10th, 2020 published on the official websites of Health Commission of Guangdong Province and local government of the cities in Guangdong Province for epidemiological analysis. Descriptive statistical methods were used to analyze the distribution patterns of the interval between entry of mainland China and diagnosis of the imported cases, and multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the factors influencing the interval. RESULTS: A total of 179 imported cases were reported in Guangdong by April 10th, 2020. The average interval between entry of mainland China and diagnosis was 4.21 days with a median of 2 days. The interval was between 1 and 3 days in 69.8% of the cases. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that a negative result of the initial nucleic acid test (OR=5.205, 95% CI: 1.100-24.640, P=0.038) and interval between entry of mainland China and a positive diagnosis >2 days (OR=85.654, 95%CI: 24.569-298.615, P < 0.001) were risk factors for the finding delay. CONCLUSIONS: The results of initial nucleic acid detection and the interval between entry of mainland China and a positive diagnosis of COVID-19 are the major contributing factors of delayed case detection. This finding suggests that strict quarantine and detection measures should be carried out for the personnel entering China to accurately and quickly identify the cases.